WHAT COUNTS IN THE 20TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION

Don Moore

ccSCOOP ANALYSIS

03-23-09 - The special election March 31 to fill the 20th Congressional District (CD) seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand takes place little more than two months after the three candidates for the office entered the race. In that time, the contest has undergone shifts in public opinion usually reserved for much longer campaigns, drawn national attention as an early test of Barack Obama’s economic stimulus program, involved prominent national political figures, and tested the conventional wisdom about the political makeup of the sprawling, ten-county congressional district. The race is the only issue on the ballot in Columbia County, or anywhere in the country, that day.

Three candidates are vying for the seat. James Tedisco, 58, Republican from Schenectady, is a 29-year veteran politician and current Minority Leader of the State Assembly. Scott Murphy, 39, the relatively unknown Democrat from Glens Falls, is Managing Director of Advantage Capital Partners, a small business investment company. Eric Sundwall, 41, Libertarian from Niverville, is an IT consultant and chair of the New York State Libertarian Party. 

Two recent polls conducted by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) of registered voters in the 20th CD brought the race into sharp focus. The first SRI poll on February 26 showed Tedisco leading Murphy by 46 to 34 percent, with 20 percent undecided. Two weeks later on March 12, SRI released the results of a repeat survey that found the gap had closed to within 4 points with Tedisco at 45 percent, Murphy at 41 percent, and Sundwall gaining a 1 percent toehold. The margin of error for both surveys is ±3.7 percent. The all important undecided vote narrowed to 13 percent with the shift in the undecideds in Murphy’s favor. Sundwall’s candidacy may not survive to Election Day. Conservative party leaders in Dutchess County, arguably supporters of Tedisco, on March 17 filed a challenge to Sundwall’s ballot petitions in State Supreme Court.

Handicapping the race includes a cat’s cradle of considerations. But, first things first, the national economy is the number one issue—everywhere. In the political argot of the first Clinton presidential campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Another SRI poll released a day after the second 20th CD horserace poll, Special NY State Survey: The Financial Crisis, surveyed all residents over 18. That survey confirmed New Yorkers statewide were following national financial events: 48 percent very closely and 38 percent somewhat closely—86 percent in total. The poll tracked New York City, the New York suburbs (from Long Island north through Putnam County), and Upstate. The margin of error was ±3 percent. Upstaters paid as much attention as residents of the other two areas.  

But there were notable dissimilarities. When asked if the national financial problems would have a very serious effect on their households, 36 percent of all New Yorkers said yes, but only 29 percent of Upstaters held the same opinion.  Regarding the stimulus, 15 percent of all New Yorkers reported that they believe it is very likely that President Obama’s stimulus program would soon begin to bring the economy back to health, but only 6 percent of Upstaters were of the same opinion. In a statewide breakdown by political party affiliation, 19 percent of Democrats believed the stimulus is not very likely to succeed, while 32 percent of Republicans and 32 percent of Independents shared that negative opinion

Both candidates have reached out for financial support of political committees and endorsement of office holders and prominent party members, although early on it appeared that Republicans were giving more attention and money to Tedisco’s efforts. Reports of direct contributions filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on March 19 show that Murphy has raised more money than Tedisco. Murphy’s FEC report shows he raised $890,661 and loaned his campaign an additional $250,000, for a total of $1.14 million. Tedisco’s FEC report shows he raised $836,612 and loaned his campaign $200,000 for a total of $1.03 million. Heading into the last ten days of the campaign, each had about the same amount of cash on hand: Tedisco $467,561; Murphy $443,980. Sundwall’s FEC report shows he raised $8,746 and has $419 on hand. Tedisco leads in PAC contributions with a 40-60 percent split between PAC and individual contributions.  The Murphy campaign’s take so far is 34 percent from PACs and 66 percent from individuals.

But a great deal more money than that is being spent to influence the race. According to the Politico, the Republican National Committee has put $344,000 into the race, The National Republican Trust (not affiliated with a mainline Republican committee) is spending $190,000, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending $157,000.  All of this money is over and above what is spent by the individual campaigns. 

The campaign air war has intensified as each candidate uses television to bolster his campaign. In a few cases, the dogfights have caught flak from media fact checkers. The Albany Times-Union recently took the Tedisco camp to task for an ad asserting that Murphy’s support of the stimulus package amounted to supporting a “law that gives bonuses to AIG executives,” which the Times-Union termed “an outright distortion.” The Times-Union also criticized an ad put up by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). “The NRCC's ad also repeats their earlier contention that Murphy is a tax cheat, an inaccurate claim,” said the Times-Union. In the same report, Murphy was also criticized for an earlier ad, but in milder terms. 

More evidence of national attention came when The Trust PAC aired an ad that appeared on WNYT-13 asserting that Murphy created 1,000 jobs in India. Murphy’s campaign protested to WNYT-13. NBC, the station’s parent company, requested documentation of the claims from The Trust PAC.  None was forthcoming, so NBC pulled the ad. 

On both sides, national figures have weighed in, either participating directly in raising money or campaigning in the 20th. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani visited Dutchess County, and controversial Republican National Chairman Michael Steele campaigned for Tedisco in early February. Mitt Romney and a number of Republican Members of Congress are raising and contributing to Tedisco’s campaign. Murphy has benefited from fundraising by Bill Clinton and David Paterson. U.S. Representative James Clyburn (D-SC), Deputy Whip and third-ranking in Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s House leadership, will appear at Shiloh Baptist Church in Hudson on March 29. But Murphy’s greatest asset, possibly the most significant fielded by any candidate in the 20th CD, may be Senator Gillibrand who has campaigned twice in the District. The Siena pollsters found that the Senator is the most popular politician in the district by a wide margin. Governor Paterson wins a favorable rating of 41 percent, Rudolph Giuliani 63 percent, President Obama 65 percent, but Gillibrand is regarded favorably by 78 percent of 20th CD eligible voters.

In the days just before the 2007 off-year elections, after a drive to recruit new voters, Columbia County political activists woke up to startling voter registration totals. For the first time in living memory, Democratic registration exceeded Republic registration 14,322 to 14,284 for a total of 28,616 registered voters in those two parties. But look at this. The total number of eligible voters is 46,182. That’s 17,566 registered, voting voters in Columbia County alone who are not “Rs” or “Ds.” So what is the real count? 

In Columbia County, 31 percent of registered voters are Democrats, 31 percent are Republicans, 6 percent are Independents, 3 percent are Conservatives, and 29 percent hold no party allegiance. Arguably, then, 35 percent of the Columbia County electorate cannot be taken for granted on Election Day.

A similar dilemma exists in defining the voters of the Congressional District as a whole. With these numbers taken into account, the political character of the 20th CD departs significantly from conventional wisdom: Republicans 41 percent, Democrats 26 percent, Independents 5 percent, Conservatives 2 percent, other minor parties and unaffiliated voters 26 percent. Even adding Republicans and Conservatives together, Republicans do not have a majority of registered voters in the 20th CD.

But how does the 20th vote? The election results from November 2008 hold some tantalizing insights. According to the New York State Board of Elections, in the 2008 race for the Congressional seat, then incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Republican challenger Sandy Treadwell by a margin of 63 to 37 percent, with a combined total of 310,976 votes cast. And consider this. In the Presidential election, where the Obama/Biden ticket defeated McCain/Palin in the ten counties that compose the 20th District by a margin of 53 percent (256,560) to 47 percent (228,359), the total vote was 484,919. That means that 36 percent of the voters who entered the voting booth did not vote for a candidate for Congress. The results also mean that 61,830 people who voted for Obama did not vote for Gillibrand. But they arguably voted blue and not red.

High voter turnout in 2008 was remarkable, as it was nationwide, and counted a great deal in the victory of the Obama/Biden ticket. There is every reason to believe that the March 31 special election also will pivot on turnout.

Will there be another Siena Research Institute horserace poll prior to the election? Yes, SRI tells ccSCOOP, sometime before March 27.  Would it be a surprise to see Jim Tedisco lose his lead to Scott Murphy?  No, it would not.

Don Moore is a writer and communications specialist living and working in Hudson, New York. Among his career turning points are stints as an education journalist, congressional staffer, arts administrator and lobbyist, and higher education communications and development manager.